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24/3/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 10th. March.

Randwick - Randwick Guineas Day
Track: Good

R1 $100,000 3YO and upward. Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Magic Instinct
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Peter G Moody
Winner: Spirit Of Tara
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gerald Ryan


Morphettville: Track Good

R4 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lord Of The Dance
Result: first

Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Mark Lewis

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make a living win betting horses
Get those betting odds
The 70% Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 17/3/2007
Betting favourites in small field - 10/3/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 17/3/2007 - Rosehill & Sandown
Betting tips from the track: 10/3/2007 - Randwick & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/3/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.