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10/3/2007 edition

He's No Pie Eater Wins Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes

$81.00 winner. How you could have backed it!

If you look at the betting market odds for the Group1 Weight for Age Chipping Norton Stakes run over 1600 metres at Warwick Farm last Saturday, you will see that punters decided there were really only three serious winning chances.

1. Desert War, which finished second, started as the $2.60 favourite.

2. Eremein, which finished fourth, started at $2.90.

3. Mentality, which finished third, started at $3.70 after firming from $4.00.

Of the other seven runners, Confectioner was next in the betting, starting at $31.00, followed by Grand Zulu, $71.00 and the winner, He's No Pie Eater at $81.00.

As so often happens with two horse "match races" or in this case three horses, punters got it badly wrong.

$81.00 starting price He's No Pie Eater. You've got to be joking!

You only had to look at his form and go back two starts to 7th. October last year.

Third, beaten a half neck and a head by Teranaba and All Black Gold over 2000 metres in the 3YO Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes.

It was reasonable to assume that astute trainer Graeme Rogerson would have the horse fit to run a strong 1600 metres first up. He had also engaged top jockey Zac Purton for the ride.

Opportunities to back winning horses at big odds are regularly there for punters. But punters must be prepared to:

1. Ignore all the noise about "match races" and comments from other bettors like, "This horse can't win," or "This horse can't lose."

2. Be prepared to look past the obvious form that 99% of other punters are using - that is if they make use of any form at all.

3. Have the courage to bet like most punters don't wager. Because let's face it. If you are going to bet like the majority of punters and consistently take the same poor odds about the horse that "will win" like most punters are prepared to do you will get their long term betting results. That is a guaranteed loss.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How you could have backed this $81.00 winner!
Get those betting odds
Beat the Firming Tote Favourites horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 3/3/2007
Betting favourites in small field - 24/2/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 3/3/2007 - Warwick Farm & Caulfield
Betting tips from the track: 24/2/2007 - Rosehill & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/2/2007
Punt to Win index


2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


 

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