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10/3/2007 edition

Beat the Firming Tote Favourites Horse Racing Betting System

This simple betting method looks for horses at good odds to beat favourites that are tote firmers, as backing all "tote firmers" gives a guaranteed long term loss.

Here are the rules.

1. Take note of tote prices 15 minutes before the race is due to start and three minutes before the race. (You might wait to two minutes if you can get your bet on quickly). We are looking to see if the tote favourite three minutes before the start has firmed 10% from its price 15 minutes before the start.

2. A horse has firmed 10% if 15 minutes before the race its price was say $3.00 and at three minutes before the start it was $2.70 or shorter. It has firmed here the necessary 30 cents which is 10% of $3.00.

3. If a horse is the tote favourite three minutes before the race start and has firmed at least 10% in price we aim to back a horse to beat it.

4. Choose a horse at double figure odds, or pretty close, that either won or ran within 1.5 lengths of the winner at its last start.

5. The horse must have a lower handicap before any apprentice claims than at its last start, again before any apprentice claims.

6. If there are no qualifiers here then find a horse with at least a 30% win strike rate provided it was beaten no more than three lengths at its last start. (If no qualifiers also then this method leaves the race alone.)

7. If money is coming for the tote favourite, you will often get much better odds about some of these other horses.

8. It may pay to take note of these horses as possible bets well before three minutes to go otherwise you might run out of time.

Good luck.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How you could have backed this $81.00 winner!
Get those betting odds
Beat the Firming Tote Favourites horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 3/3/2007
Betting favourites in small field - 24/2/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 3/3/2007 - Warwick Farm & Caulfield
Betting tips from the track: 24/2/2007 - Rosehill & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/2/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21



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