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25/3/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

So here are the results from Saturday, 18th. March.

Randwick: Guineas Day
Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Fighting Fund
Result: first
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Guy Walter
Equal Favourite: Matador
Result: third
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $75,000 4YO and upward. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Break The Vault
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $4.00
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Lord Of The Land
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Anthony Cummings


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $18,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3036 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Clearview Bay
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Trent Barras
Trainer: Heather Frew

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1822 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Silk Wind
Result: first

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Put the betting odds in your favour
Leading trainer Gai Waterhouse under the microscope
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The $10.00 Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/3/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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