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26/2/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 19th. February, 2011. On this day $750,000 Group 1 Lightning Stakes was held at Flemington horse race track.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R5 $100,000 3YO & UP. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Beijing Boy
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Hawk Island
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller

Morphettville: Track Slow.

R1 $32,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Golden Tabby
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Coldens Choice
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R5 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Broken
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: Jacob Rule
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Augusta Proud
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.60
Jockey: Jackson Matthews
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/2/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/2/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/2/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 5/2/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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