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5/2/2011 edition

Winning Horse Racing Handicapping Tips

Weight is the great leveller in racing.

As a horse rises in weight its chances of winning decreases in handicaps. When horses in handicaps are asked to carry around 58kg. or more many are often risky bets, especially if they have jumped up in the weights and are not used to carrying such high weights.

There is a typical media cliché, "The horse has the class, (form, wins,) so it deserves the weight." The media tipster then selects the short priced horse handicapped at 60kg. which then goes on to lose.

Throw in the double whammy of a significant weight rise and a poor barrier compared to the last start and you are often looking at a very risky betting proposition. These horses regularly lose. Just check the results out for yourself! You'll see what we mean.

There is a very common rule used by many computer programmes and form analysts. It assumes that 1.5kg equals one length.

Increase a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg over the Limit weight (minimum handicapped weight for that race) and it will perform one length worse, all other factors being equal.

Decrease a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg and it will perform one length better, all other factors being equal.

That rule is not accurate.
Without going into all the complexities, the following guidelines are far more important. If followed you will back many more winners and avoid backing many losers.

1. The more weight a horse has to carry, the more significant a small weight rise is. 

2. The less weight a horse has to carry, the less significant a large weight rise is.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning horse racing weight handicapping tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier Winner at Big Odds horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/1/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/1/2011
Punt to Win index

2010 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners over $10.00
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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Ferocia 42.90 51.00 $81
Influential Miss 24.00 29.10 $51
Spectrolite 13.60 16.80 $32
Americain 10.90 14.00 $31
Tagus 10.90 13.00 $21


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