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5/2/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 29th. January, 2011.

Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Godspeed
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.65
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Abstract
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.50
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Fast Clip
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Screen
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R6 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Triple Elegance
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: All Legal
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Kevin Moses


Sandown Hillside: Track R1-R4 Dead, R5-R8 Good.

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: At The Heads
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Sanny O'Brien
Winner: Dane The Rave
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $18.40
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Allan Williams


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $32,000 Fillies & Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Always Discreet
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: Michael Hickmott
Winner: Just Sybil
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Lauren Stojakovic
Trainer: Brian Mueller

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning horse racing weight handicapping tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier Winner at Big Odds horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/1/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/1/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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