Punt to Win
Should You Pretend that Horse's Shocking Run Never Happened?
How often have you been told to ignore a horse's last run because that wasn't its true form?
The following example is a great lesson. Don't ever forget it. So let's have a look at what happened at Flemington racetrack on Derby Day, 2000 where Sky Heights was sent out as the $3.50 favourite in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes over 2000 metres.
One week earlier in the W.S.Cox Plate at Moonee Valley racetrack over 2040 metres Sky Heights started second favourite at $5.00 and finished a dismal 26 lengths behind champion mare Sunline. That's right. 26 lengths!
There was a huge amount of pre race publicity about that Cox Plate. That was the race where Sky Heights was really going to apply the pressure to Sunline, was reallygoing to test out the champion mare and make sure she didn't have a cosy run in the lead. So what happened? Sky Heights missed the start, never got into the race and put in an absolutely appalling run. Punters were shocked and angry at the way they lost their money.
But come Derby Day there was one consistent theme from tipsters everywhere. Forget Sky Heights went around only seven days earlier. The true Sky Heights' form was shown by his brilliant win the start before.
Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter:
Register for the Forum:
This edition of Punt to Win:
2010 Melbourne Cup Day
|Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.|