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15/1/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 8th. January, 2011.

Randwick: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Teardrop Rock
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Combat Kitty
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Winner: Fast And Sexy
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller


Caulfield: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Covered In Glass
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.35
Jockey: Luke Currie
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Holdontoyahorses
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Eclair Flyer
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Warm Love
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Brideoake

R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mid Summer Music
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Zeftabaa
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $27.90
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Dale Sutton


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $40,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Bay's Edge
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: My Choisir
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.00
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Paul Seater

R2 $32,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tropic Thunder
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Southern Speed
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

R4 $32,000 Rating 68+ Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Spirited Eagle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning form is good form - should you dismiss a horse's shocking race run?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Prize Money Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/12/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 18/12/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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