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15/1/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Sunday, 26th. December, 2010.

Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Sincero
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.45
Top fluctuation: $1.65
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Chris O'Brien
Trainer: Stephen Farley


Caulfield: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Golden Archer
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Little Artist
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Mazanilla
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Doomben: Track Heavy.

R1 $45,000 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: What Happenedhenry
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Kelly Schweida

R6 $50,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Santo De Lago
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Les Kelly

R7 $45,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Lochiel
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gerald Ryan


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Gotta Keep Cool
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.26
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Darren Weir

R2 $32,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Miss Debra
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Paul Seater
Winner: Mystic Moment
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Jordan Frew
Trainer: Darren Magro

R3 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Bohika
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Darren Weir

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning form is good form - should you dismiss a horse's shocking race run?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Prize Money Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/12/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 18/12/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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