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15/1/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 1st. January, 2011.

Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Secession
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Gai's Choice
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.20
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: David Pfieffer


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2037 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Manila Jewel
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Lady Avacan
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Jordan Frew
Trainer: Sue Jaensch

R2 $32,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Bit Of A Dude
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: Stuart Gower
Winner: Justify That
Starting price: $18.00
Top fluctuation: $18.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $19.10
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $32,000 Fillies & Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Ready Miss
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Just Sybil
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Lauren Stojakovic
Trainer: Brian Mueller

R4 $32,000 Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Taken The Road
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: David Balfour
Winner: Cornelia Marie
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning form is good form - should you dismiss a horse's shocking race run?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Prize Money Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/12/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 18/12/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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