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5/2/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. January, 2011.
On this day the $1,640,000 Magic Millions 2YO Classic over 1200 metres and the $820,000 Magic Millions 3YO Guineas over 1400 metres were held at the Gold Coast.

Rosehill: Track Dead R1-R4, Good R5-R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Godspeed
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: StevenArnold
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Bossdon City
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Mathew Cahill
Trainer: Brett Cavanough

R3 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Sea Lord
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: David Payne

R4 $100,000 3YO & UP. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Alexander Of Hales
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Voice Commander
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Nick Olive

R6 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Win A Million
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: Kelly Schweida
Winner: Dailika
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.40
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Gabrielle Englebrecht


Flemington: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Graskop
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Helping Hand
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.00
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R2 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Dubawi Gold
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: John Sadler
Winner: Dusty Star
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter Morgan

R3 $75,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Warm Love
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jordan Mallyon
Trainer: David Brideoake


Morphettville: Track Dead R1-R3, Good R4-R8

R3 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Blades Of Glory
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning horse racing weight handicapping tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier Winner at Big Odds horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/1/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/1/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/1/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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