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26/2/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. February, 2011. On this day the $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age C. F. Orr Stakes was held at Caulfield.

Caulfield - C. F. Orr Stakes Day: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Rain Shadow
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Equal Favourite: Apennine
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon


Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $100,000 2YO. Fillies. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Satin Shoes
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.28
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Clarry Conners


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $32,000 Fillies & Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Obsidian Dragon
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: David Balfour

R2 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Streaky Fella
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Jacob Rule
Trainer: Darren Weir

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/2/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/2/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/2/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 5/2/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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