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26/4/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 19th. April, Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill.

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Taameer
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Kalash
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.00
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Cheltenham: Track Good

R2 $15,000 Rst. 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Go Giggle
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
Winner: Under The Radar
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: David Tootell
Trainer: Bill Bogarts


Here is the result from Saturday, 12th. April.

Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R1 $54,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cascade
Result: third
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Lilian Evelyn
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.20
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting system scams
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Top Two Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/4/2008 & 12/4/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 19/4/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 12/4/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/4/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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