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26/6/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. June, 2010.

Flemington:
Track Heavy

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Anniversary
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.27 (After 19 cents in the dollar deduction for a late scratching.)
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Riptide
Starting price: $5.67 (After 19 cents in the dollar deduction for a late scratching.)
Top fluctuation: $4.05 (After 19 cents in the dollar deduction for a late scratching.)
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Savquaw
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Peter Gelagotis


Morphettville: Track Dead

R3 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: She Swings
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Yes Sir Yes Sir
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Dobbin's Golden Treasure Chest horse racing betting software scam
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/6/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/6/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/6/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/6/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 5/6/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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