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26/6/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 12th. June, 2010.

Flemington
Track: Heavy.
Rail: Out 6 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.26

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Indulgent
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 6-9
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Anniversary
Days since last start: 18
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.27 (After 19 cents in the dollar deduction for a late scratching.)
Top fluctuation: $2.27 (After 19 cents in the dollar deduction for a late scratching.)
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Savquaw
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Peter Gelagotis

R4 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Winged Charm
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Michael Kent

R5 $125,000 3YO. Listed. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Dubleanny
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Philda
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Michael Kent

R7 $70,000 3YO. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Vesper
Days since last start: 23
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Old Jock
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 8-13
Result this start: 10th
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Mick Price

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a small winning meeting at top fluctuation bookmaker odds, with three winners from the eight favourites. Two of these winning favourites were last start winners while Savquaw finished third at its previous start one week earlier. In R1 and R8 the favourites finished sixth of nine and eight of 13 at their previous starts. They both finished out of a place again.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Dobbin's Golden Treasure Chest horse racing betting software scam
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/6/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/6/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/6/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/6/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 5/6/2010
Punt to Win index
Sportingbet Australia. Great special offers for members!


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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