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26/6/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 5th. June, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: R1-6 Dead, R7-8 Slow.
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.85

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Liveandletdie
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R2 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Doubtful Jack
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Sunday Rose
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Trainer: Bart Cummings

R4 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Oak Heart
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 9-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.50
Top fluctuation: $4.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Darren Weir

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Elusive Touch
Days since last start: 141
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Lord Pyrus
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R7 $75,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Deliver The Dream
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 12th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Tinamou
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Jake Noonan

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a winning meeting with three winners from the eight favourites. The winners, Doubtful Jack in R2 and Sunday Rose in R3 both finished second in their previous starts, which were 14 days and seven days earlier. However in R5 punters succcessfully backed a winning favourite resuming from a long spell, as Elusive Touch was first up after a long spell of 141 days. Oak Heart in R4 finished ninth at its previous start and was again unplaced, while in R6 Lord Pyrus was unplaced after jumping up in distance from 1300 metres to 1600 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Dobbin's Golden Treasure Chest horse racing betting software scam
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Tipster Longshot horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 19/6/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 12/6/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 5/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/6/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/6/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 5/6/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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