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26/7/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 19th. July, 2014.

Flemington: Track Dead.

R2 $80,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Jessy Belle
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.45
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Luke Oliver
Winner: Written
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Katelyn Mallyon
Trainer: Michael Kent


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 12th. July, 2014.

Randwick: Track Good.

R2 $80,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Black Revolver
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Weinholt
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mr Favulous
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: Donald Baker
Winner: Adebisi
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Samuel Payne
Trainer: Desleigh Forster


Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 5th. July, 2014.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Inkling
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden
Winner: Delectation
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.00
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing win betting tote firmers
The Free Top Weight horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 19/7/2014, 12/7/2014 & 5/7/2014

Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 5/7/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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