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28/5/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, May 22.

Morphettville: Track Good
R3 $20,000 3YO. Rest. 1Metro. Win. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Live In Vain
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Gary Kennewell
Winner: Mister Bell
Starting price: $16.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $19.30
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: Ken Sweeney

R4 $20,000 3YO and upwards. Rst. I Met. Win-ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Scold
Result: third
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $4.50
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Cannyopra
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Andrew Noblet

This edition of Punt to Win:
Brisbane winter carnival betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields, 22 May, 2004
Betting favourites in small fields, 15 May, 2004
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown, betting tips from the track
Money talks - betting tips from the track, 15 May, 2004
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/5/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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