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28/5/2005 edition

Irrelevant Form Lines

Many strong punters I talk to all agree on one point.
If you have done your form correctly and like a horse, the form around it, believe it or not is irrelevant.

I can understand if you say that is ridiculous. After all, punters have been so conditioned by the media to look for those form lines. That is of course also how the "media experts" make their selections.

However if you are doing sports betting and having a bet on the football you don't reason: Western Bulldogs beat Essendon, Melbourne beat Western Bulldogs so Melbourne will beat Essendon. So why do something like that with horses?

If the horse won its last race these strong punters take no special notice of how the horses it beat went after that race. If it ran a close second or third they take no notice of how the horse/s that beat it went after the race. As far as they are concerned they examine the merits of the horse's run by looking at its race, taking into account factors like video replays, weight carried, sectional times, run in the race, track bias etc.

If the horse that beat it last start is running earlier in the day, unless they have money on it, they hope the horse will flop because they know punters will turn off their chosen horse later in the day and they will get a better price.
Interesting, isn't it?

Remember, to win at racing you can't take the same approach as most punters, or like them, you will lose.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form lines are irrelevant
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/5/2005
Punt to Win index


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