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28/5/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, May 21 .

Rosehill: Track Dead

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Class 6.
Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bunkum
Result: first
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Gary Portelli

R2 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Pin Up
Result: first

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: John O'Shea

R7 $60,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lilly O'Reilly
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Lenny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Zumanity
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: John O'Shea


Moonee Valley: Track Good

R1 $50,000 4YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Umbula
Result: first
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Ricky Debono
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form lines are irrelevant
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/5/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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