Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software
Win at racing

 

 

28/6/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 7th. June, when the $1,000,000 Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap and $500,000 Queensland Derby was held at Eagle Farm.

Randwick: Track Heavy

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rst81. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Guru
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: Guy Walter
Winner: Noble Edict
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Kevin Moses

R2 $70,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Millennium Express
Result: first

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $22,000 2YO Fillies. Rst1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: African Lily
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Tigresque
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.70
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning money with horse racing betting systems
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The 2YO Bolters Big Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/6/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/6/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/6/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 21/6/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 14/6/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 7/6/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/6/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.