29/11/2002 edition

Trainers' Tips
Will that Flop Improve?

Last week in Punt to Win we wrote about some horses whose previous runs were poor that were publicly tipped by their trainers to run big races at their next starts. The trainers were wrong. The horses flopped again.

Trainers, by their nature, are optimistic. Would you be training a horse, entering it in a race and then expecting it to run poorly? That's precisely why confident media tips by trainers are generally not much good.

Last Saturday Leon Corstens was on Sport 927 confidently tipping a big run by his 3YO filly Bardego. After winning her first two races this filly had been a dismal flop in her next two races.

On February 23 this year she was beaten by over 10 lengths in the Blue Diamond Stakes. Sent out for a lengthy spell, she resumed on Melbourne Cup Day, November 5 in a 1000 metres 3YO Open down the Flemington straight. She was solidly backed from $7.00 to $5.00. Now on Melbourne Cup Day, with over 100,000 people at the races, that takes a lot of money.

It's probably a pretty safe bet to say that Leon Corstens had tipped Bardego as a winner to connections. Bardego finished fifteenth of 16 runners, beaten by nearly 14 lengths.

The stewards' report gave no reasons for the horse flopping. You cannot simply dismiss a poor run like that unless there are very, very good reasons. Then you make sure to obtain generous odds. Many punters on Saturday dismissed the shocking run on Melbourne Cup Day and took $6.00 about Bardego, who was also handicapped an extra three kilos for that 14 lengths' defeat. That's why two kilos' claiming apprentice rider Vince Caddy was put on the filly.

Vince Caddy gave Bardego every chance, but the filly was gone at the 200 and finished ninth in the field of 10.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning betting tips
Betting system - winners at huge odds
Confident trainers' tips - will that flop improve?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/11/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Specials
Free horse racing ratings tips betting service
Horse racing news
Fantastic bookmaker betting odds value
Top horse racing and sports wagering odds
Best online bookmakers

Copyright ©1998-2015 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.