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22/11/2002 edition

Be a Winning Punter

Last Saturday at Cheltenham as the horses were moving into the barriers for the eighth race Hilton Donaldson said:

"There's been a big go here on course. Finniss D'or - yes, heavily backed on track. The biggest go all day, there's no doubt."

Finniss D'Or, who was heavily plunged on track from $4.50 to start a short priced $2.60 favourite, won the race by 2.5 lengths after appearing to be under pressure when midfield and very wide around the home turn.

Upon winning the race Hilton Donaldson added:

"Have a look at the totes. $2.80, $2.60 and $2.70. Now that was $3.40 when we last updated and I got that message hopefully in time for some of you to follow the course money. But that was a very, very big go and it won like a good thing."

Sensible punters who win money long term don't wait until the horses are about to jump to make a rushed phone call to their TAB account to follow the betting ring money. They know that at $4.50 you only need a 22% strike rate to break even. They also know that at the short odds of $2.60 you need over a 38% strike rate to break even. (Simply divide 100 by the dollar odds.)

Winning punters do not back plunged betting ring horses on the tote at dollars below the odds that were available in the bookmaker betting ring.

Suppose these selections win 30% of the time. At $2.60, your tote punter will be showing a 22% loss on turnover. But your smart punter who got the $4.50 will be returning an excellent profit of 35% on turnover.

Remember the hype about shares leading into the 1987 crash? Remember how internet stocks, at massively inflated prices, were meant to be such good buying at the peak of the internet stock boom in 2000 before they crashed? Horses' odds are no different. Taking the shortest odds about plunged horses is just like buying shares at the peak of a boom.

In our opinion the correct advice Hilton Donaldson should have given his audience was:

"There's been a very big go on Finniss D'Or. There's no point now rushing to place a bet. You have missed the odds and will get unders."

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you follow the money and back a plunged horse on the tote?
Be a form detective - and win!
Betting tips from Sandown last Saturday
Confident trainers' tips - will that flop improve?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Sandown plunge horses
Money talks - Eagle Farm plunge horses
Money talks - Cheltenham plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 15/11/2002
Punt to Win index

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