22/11/2002 edition

Be a Form Detective
and
Be a Winner!

In any good formguide you will usually find all the information you need. The key is how you interpret and use the information. With smart detective work you can find winning bets at good odds.

As an example, let's have a look at the case of 5YO gelding My Sheriff, trained at Tamworth by P. H. St. Vincent.

This gelding has obviously had problems because his first official trial was at Rosehill in May 2000, followed by further trials at Hawkesbury and Warwick Farm about a year later. But he never made it to an official race until September 29 this year when he started at $11.00 and won a 900 metres maiden at Scone.

He followed up that with a fast finishing fourth, on October 14, in a Scone Class 1 with 58kg., only beaten 0.5 lengths. He started at $9.00.

His next run gives us some additional very important clues.

On October 30 he was entered in a Class 3 over 1200 metres at Eagle Farm and firmed in the betting from $5.50 to start at $4.60. He was expected to run well. However he finished sixth in the field of nine runners, beaten by over seven lengths. But any good form guide will also tell you he ran wide during the race.

My Sheriff was then entered in a similar standard race two weeks later at Eagle Farm. There was also another important clue. Jockey Garry Baker, who rode My Sheriff two weeks earlier at Eagle Farm, when the gelding was supported in the betting and ran wide, was replaced by Zac Purton, one of Brisbane's leading jockeys.

My Sheriff won the nine horse race and paid $10.70 on SuperTab.

So to summarise:
1. The gelding is lightly raced (open to improvement).
2. His first two runs had been good.
3. He was expected to run well when taken to Eagle Farm (betting ring support).
4. Something went wrong during the running of the race (he ran wide).
5. There was a significant jockey change for his next start in similar class.
6. The gelding won at good odds.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you follow the money and back a plunged horse on the tote?
Be a form detective - and win!
Betting tips from Sandown last Saturday
Confident trainers' tips - will that flop improve?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Sandown plunge horses
Money talks - Eagle Farm plunge horses
Money talks - Cheltenham plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 15/11/2002
Punt to Win index

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