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30/7/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

There were no small fields of seven horses or less on the 23rd. July.

Here are the results of how punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields did on Saturday, 16th. July, 2011.

Caulfield: Track Dead.

R6 $100,000 Open. Listed. Handicapped under Weight for Age conditions.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Warm Love
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Brideoake
Winner: Secret Flyer
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Mark Young

Here is the result from Saturday, 9th. July, 2011.

Randwick: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mikiyama
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Aruriteson
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $20.60
Jockey: Kathy O’Hara
Trainer: Leeane Poulson

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make money on horse racing betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Third Up Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/7/2011, 16/7/2011 & 9/7/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/7/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 2/7/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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