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30/7/2011 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Morphettville - 23/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Black And Bent
73.5kg.
10
3100
$1.30
1/11
Striding Success
59.5kg.
11
1050
$8.00
12/13
Rosehill - 16/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Testarhythm
59kg.
9
1400
$4.60
2/9
Doomben - 16/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Startsmeup
59.5kg.
11
1110
$11.00
2/14
Morphettville - 16/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Periduki
59kg.
4
1200
$2.45fav.
1/6
Flemington - 9/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Volando
59kg.
12
1600
$5.50fav.
7/15
Morphettville - 9/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Magical Pearl
59kg.
11
1400
$7.50
7/12
Sunshine Coast - 2/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Internal Revenue
59kg.
2
1200
$3.50fav.
2/15
Morphettville - 2/7/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Riahgrand
60kg.
11
1100
$8.50
8/11
Rosehill - 25/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Miss Marx
59.5kg.
4
1400
$4.00fav.
2/11
Daintree Road
59kg.
7
1500
$2.80fav.
6/11
Eagle Farm - 25/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mystical Grey
59.5kg.
7
1400
$3.90
1/10
Morphettville - 25/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ripleys
60kg.
10
1200
$6.50
11/14
Ipswich - 18/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Star Of Octagonal
59kg.
3
1666
$3.80
5/10
Morphettville - 18/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gran Sasso
61kg.
5
1000
$7.50
4/7
Randwick - 11/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Scarf
59kg.
10
1400
$3.30fav.
1/10
Gigas
60kg.
9
1100
$10.00
8/9
Flemington - 11/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Stanzout
59kg.
7
1000
$9.00
4/8
Morphettville - 11/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Irel
60kg.
8
2048
$10.00
11/12
Sandown Lakeside - 4/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Royal Bender
59kg.
5
1200
$4.40
1/9
Beau Vallon
59kg.
8
1200
$7.00
3/9
Mont Fleuri
59kg.
1
1600
$6.00
5/11
Morphettville - 4/6/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gran Sasso
62kg.
1
1050
$5.00
6/7
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make money on horse racing betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Third Up Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/7/2011, 16/7/2011 & 9/7/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/7/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 2/7/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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