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31/1/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 17th. January, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $70,000 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Flying Spin
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Master Gaze
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Tracey Bartley

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rst76. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Gold Water
Result: first

Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Equal Favourite: Metal Bender
Result: second
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Jack Denham


Flemington: Track Good

R1 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Tariks
Result: first

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $25,500 Fillies & Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Tis Isat
Result: first

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell

This edition of Punt to Win:
Night horse racing. Should you bet on it?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/1/2009
The Track and Distance horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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