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31/1/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 10th. January, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.26

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Kwassa Kwassa
Days since last start: 9
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Shane Stockdale

R2 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Quinquatria
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 5-8
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R3 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Flagstaff
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1533
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Brian Cox

R4 $60,000 3YO & upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Annesong
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R5 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Lucky Secret
Days since last start: 64
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 10-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.65
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R6 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Wind Shear
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Dale Sutton

R7 $60,000 Rst95. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Itstheone
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R8 $60,000 3YO & upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Go Missy
Days since last start: 9
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Greg Eurell

Comments:
The favourite in R2, Quinquatria, ran fifth of eight at its previous start; it was again unplaced. While in R5 Lucky Secret was sent out a $1.65 favourite in the field of four after finishing tenth at its previous start. Lucky Secret ran second.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Night horse racing. Should you bet on it?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/1/2009
The Track and Distance horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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