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31/1/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 10th. January.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Handsupfordetroit
Result: first

Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Grahame Begg

R3 $70,000 3YO & upward. Colts, Horses & Geldings. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gently Bentley
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Needlebox
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: Clinton McDonald


Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties..
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Kwassa Kwassa
Result: third
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Shane Stockdale
Winner: Rarefied
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R5 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Lucky Secret
Result: equal second/third
Starting price: $1.65
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Winner: Mind Your Head
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: John Ledger


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $25,500 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1455 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bella's Bro
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Jason Lyon
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Luna Spirit
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Daniel Clarken

R2 $25,500 3YO Fillies. Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Just Sybil
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: Brian Mueller
Winner: Teivovo
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R3 $30,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1455 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Manila Jewel
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R4 $25,500 Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1455 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Heavens Jester
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Amy Herrmann
Trainer: Mick Huxtable
Winner: Zodiac Queen
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R5 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1305 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Danedina
Result: third
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Maduro
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.40
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly


This edition of Punt to Win:
Night horse racing. Should you bet on it?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/1/2009
The Track and Distance horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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