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18/9/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 11th. September, 2010.

On this day the $400,000 Group 2 Weight for Age John F. Feehan Stakes (registered name) was run over 1600 metres at Moonee Valley.

Doomben: Track Dead.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Aspiran
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Justin Wood
Trainer: Victor Vagg

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Poor Judge
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Norm Hilton

Morphettville: Track Dead.

R1 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Conservatorium
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Shayne Cahill
Trainer: Gary Kennewell

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horse racing tips everyone "Knows Will Win"
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Three Lengths horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 28/8/2010
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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