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30/9/2006 edition

Horse Racing Form Analysis

More tips for identifying poor betting value favourites

With laying horses on betting exchanges gaining increased popularity, being able to consistently identify false favourites and favourites under the odds can make some punters a lot of money.

Here are some comments we made about beaten favourites at Rosehill from a few years ago which are just as relevant today.

Labasa (4YO and UP H & Gs. S/C 1 win-ly. Handicap. 1400 metres.)
SP $3.50. 12 runners.
Maybe so short because Darren Beadman, chasing the Sydney jockey's premiership had the ride. The 5YO gelding was having its ninth run this campaign so he was hardly on the up. Winning strike rate nothing special - only six wins from 34 starts.

Coablo (Mares. Open. Handicap. 1300 metres.)
SP $3.40. 12 runners.
Maybe so short because Corey Brown, chasing the Sydney jockey's premiership had the ride. This 4YO mare has proved to be a non winner and deceiver - only two wins from 20 starts. She won her last start. It might be expecting a bit much for her to put two wins together in a row. For a backmarker back in distance from 1400 metres 10 days earlier to 1300 metres was also no help.

Laguna Lake (S/C 1 win-ly. Handicap. 1900 metres.)
SP $3.50. 12 runners.
A lightly raced 4YO mare, with one win and four seconds from eight starts. She was fit after two runs in and looked well placed, had a good barrier, (three), and Jim Cassidy to ride. The odds were simply too short, considering the realistic winning chances for a number of other runners. The four seconds could also be a concern and indicate a problem about her actually getting strongly to the line. She finished second again.
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - poor betting value favourites
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Quick Pick Quinellas horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield

Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/9/2006
Punt to Win index

2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Coronga 10.80 13.70 $29
Funlove 8.40 11.20 $28
All Bar One 15.20 17.50 $23
Segments 7.40 9.50 $21
Testafiable 6.20 8.30 $21
Freeroller 10.10 12.10 $20
Glamour Puss 9.00 10.60 $16


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