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2/7/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the Group 1 horse racing result from Saturday, 25th. June, 2011.

The $500,000 Group 1 Fillies and Mares Weight for Age Winter Stakes (registered name) was run over 1400 metres at Eagle Farm. The upset winner by a half neck was 3YO filly Yosei which was steady at $15.00 in the bookmaker betting ring and paid best tote of $15.60. Yosei was trained by Stuart Webb and ridden by Michelle Payne. The $1.95 odds on starting price favourite, 5YO mare Beaded, finished second. Beaded was trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by Corey Brown. Finishing third, only 0.7 lengths from the winner was 3YO filly Born To Rock, trained by Michael Moroney and ridden by Chad Ormsby. Born To Rock started at $31.00 despite a good win in Listed company over 1350 metres at Ipswich one week earlier.

Here are the results of how punters betting favourites in small fields did on Saturday, 25th. June, 2011.

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Velrosso
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Chris Waller


Morphettville: Track Dead.

R3 $50,000 Grand National Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3500 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Our Aristocrat
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Eric Musgrove

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - know your jockeys and win money betting horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Lucky Lil's Longshots & Bolters horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 25/6/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 18/6/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 11/6/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 11/6/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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