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2/7/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the Group 1 horse racing result from Saturday, 11th. June, 2011 held at Eagle Farm.

1. $500,000 2YO Group 1 T.J. Smith
The Peter Snowden trained 2YO colt Benefica, starting at $4.60, and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, won this 1600 metres race by 1.3 lengths from the Gerald Ryan trained $2.20 favourite, 2YO colt Hot Snitzel, ridden by Hugh Bowman.

2. $500,000 3YO Group 1 Queensland Derby
This 2400 metres race was won by the Graeme Rogerson trained 3YO gelding Shootoff, ridden by Michael Rodd. Best tote odds was as high as $4.80. Finishing second by a long head was the New Zealand 3YO filly, Shez Sinsational, which started as $6.00 third favourite. Shez Sinsational was trained by Allan Sharrock and ridden by Opie Bosson. A long head further back in third was the $4.20 second favourite, 3YO filly Heidilicious. This filly was trained by John Sadler and ridden by Jim Byrne.

3. $1,000,000 Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap

This 1400 metres race was won by the lightest handicapped horse in the race with just 50.5kg., the 3YO gelding Sincero, which firmed from $9.00 to start at $7.50 third favourite with the bookmakers. Stephen Farley trained Sincero which was ridden by Jason Taylor. $6.50 second favourite, 5YO mare Beaded finished a long neck away in second. Beaded was ridden by Kerrin McEvoy and trained by Peter Snowden. The $5.00 favourite, 4YO entire Love Conquers All, finished fifteenth in the field of 18, nearly eight lengths from the winner. Love Conquers All was trained by Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes and ridden by Chris Munce.

Here are the results from Saturday, 11th. June, 2011.

Flemington: Track Dead.

R5 $75,000 Winter Championship Series Heat. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Epic Dragon
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: John Sadler
Winner: Jungle Ruler
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.80
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Peter White


Morphettville: Track Dead.

R1 $40,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Weekend Special
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Marmaa
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - know your jockeys and win money betting horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Lucky Lil's Longshots & Bolters horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 25/6/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 18/6/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 11/6/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 11/6/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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