3/1/2003 edition

In Form Jockeys

Guess which racecaller said this on Boxing Day?

"Ah, that had a perfect run, didn't it. Third the fence. Amazing when jockeys are in form, as John Powell is, how things just pan out in a race.

Here he gets on Lady Isabella. Next thing Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic are just making a mess of each other in front. He lobs third the fence, the box seat. Nothing falls back on its lap. Gets around the heels of the leaders at the right time. He's able to hold up, then go when he wants to go.

That's when jockeys are in form. When they're in form everything goes to plan."

If you said Brisbane racecaller Alan Thomas, then you're right. Now let's show you why this win had nothing to do with John Powell being "in form".

1. If John Powell was not "in form" would Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic have been ridden any differently? Of course not.

2. You could hardly say that Scott Galloway, the jockey of Cyrillic is not in form. Things obviously didn't "go to plan" for him, with a speed battle up front.

3. The truth of the matter is that most jockeys are in form most of the time. But only one in form jockey can win any given race, which obviously means that most in form jockeys do not win most of the time. And for many of them, if winning is part of the plan, then things will not go to plan in most races.

4. Because most jockeys are very competent, media hyped jockeys tend to be overrated by the betting public. That results in shorter odds on the horses they ride compared with a lower profile jockey having the same ride.

5. That means you need to be very careful when backing horses ridden by someone like Damien Oliver. Because just about all punters have decided that he is "in form" the odds you get are shortened. You also know your odds will also be shortened by gamblers who rely purely on luck and will back a horse for no other reason than "Oliver has the ride."

Here are some tips about jockeys which can help your betting.
Jockey betting tips

This edition of Punt to Win:
Making money betting "in form" jockeys
Making money betting horse racing tote odds firmers
Jockeys - betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick/Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown/Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/12/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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