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3/1/2003 edition

Punters Backing Betting Odds Firmers

Here is what Sydney racecaller Ian Craig said last Saturday after Spinning Con won the second race of the day:

"Number three. Spinning Con. He's ended up on the tote at $2.80. About five minutes before the race they were betting $4.20 on the tote but in the ring he was around $2.80 at that point from $3.20. So it was a very good lead the move in the betting ring for Spinning Con and many of you punters have followed that and accordingly backed him into $2.80 in New South Wales."

Our comments:

1. Not one tote punter got $4.20. All New South Wales tote punters got $2.80. That means $4.20 was never bet on the tote.

2. The official top betting ring fluctuation was $3.00, not $3.20.

3. So the horse firmed from $3.00 to $2.80 which is not a big go. It is not "a very good lead."

4. Ian Craig, it would help if you also told your audience that to succeed at betting horses::
a) It would help if they put in some time of their own with form analysis and
b) Explained that they were lucky this time if they made money by doing no work of their own and simply backed Spinning Con, a horse that marginally firmed in the bookmaker betting ring, at tote unders.

5. How about no longer promoting the betting myth that you'll make money by following firmers because "it is a very good lead"?

We all know that to succeed at anything requires effort and discipline. That also applies to betting on horses. Simply putting in no effort and backing firmers because "it is a very good lead" is very easy to do. But like most money making pursuits in life, it is not that simple to make money long term betting on horses.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Making money betting "in form" jockeys
Making money betting horse racing tote odds firmers
Jockeys - betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick/Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown/Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/12/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

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Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
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Fox Helios 25.30 30.10 $480
Janadi 25.40 29.20 $380

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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