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4/2/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 28th January.

Rosehill: Track Good

R2 $60,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Precise Timing
Result: first

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Ross Stitt


Flemington: Track Good (1-3), Slow (4-9)

R2 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Leveller
Result: first

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R4 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Safari Sunbeam
Result: second
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Road Worker
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.60
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Roslyn Day


Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $23,000 Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Chemin
Result: first

Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Equal Favourite: Woman Eyes
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Peter Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing tips - trainers and betting plunge horses
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill
Betting tips from the track - Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/1/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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