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4/2/2006 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill, 28/1/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Warm Ride
59.5kg.
8
2000
$4.60
3/11
Flemington, 28/1/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Our Smoking Joe
61.5kg.
10
1410
$7.50
5/13
Sandown Lakeside, 14/1/2006
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Toulouse Lautrec
59kg.
3
1200
$3.40
2/6
Sutology
59kg.
2
1600
$6.00
7/7
Sandown Hillside, 24/12/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Don't Tell Tom
61kg.
6
1000
$3.30
5/8
Doomben, 24/12/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Takeover Target
60.5kg.
6
1350
$1.95fav.
1/12
Eagle Farm, 17/12/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tornado Alley
59.5kg.
2
1200
$4.20fav.
4/13
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing tips - trainers and betting plunge horses
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill
Betting tips from the track - Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/1/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.