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Punt to Win
Free Winning Horse Racing Betting Tips
Fitness, lightly raced horses and strike rates
Winners keep winning, losers keep losing
There's nothing surer in horse racing. Fit, in form winning horses and horses with excellent win strike rates plus lightly raced horses and race fit horses will often surprise at double figure odds, even when they look out of their class. Many first up horses, even if they look classes ahead of their opposition, and horses with poor win strike rates will continue to lose when you expect them to win and should not be backed at short odds.
Like the recent winning form of Over Quota.
Third up from a spell, on 21st. December, Mark Webb's 6yo gelding,Over Quota surprised and won a Rating 82 handicap at Sandown Lakeside over 1600 metres, starting at $15.00. Punters decided that was a fluke, so 24 days later, on 14th. January this year, in a slightly tougher race at Flemington over the same 1600 metres Over Quota was sent out at $61.00 and won. Then to top that off, two weeks later, on 28th. January, back to Sandown Lakeside in a $100,000 handicap run over the same 1600 metres distance, Over Quota started at $15.00 and won.
Now let's go back a few years to January 2006 at Doomben.
The feature race of the day was a $150,000 3YO set weights event over 1350 metres. There were 11 runners. La Montagna won and paid best tote odds of $16.40. She had three wins and three placings from 10 starts, and was hard race fit. At her previous start, three weeks earlier, she finished second in a photo in a 3YO Fillies Quality race.
By contrast, the $1.55 favourite, Fashions Afield, was first up, having last raced on October 1. That's right. First up and sent out at $1.55. Absolutely farcical. No wonder punters lose at racing if they take odds like that in those circumstances. Fashions Afield finished sixth.
To further illustrate, here's an example on file from a few years earlier.
In a restricted 1000 metres race at Cheltenham Helium was sent out the $4.50 favourite. Strike rate. Two wins from 32 starts. No thanks.
Helium led to the home turn, battled on well enough in the straight and finished second, beaten by two lengths. That is exactly why the five year old gelding has such a poor winning strike rate.
The winner, Pontevidra who paid best tote odds of $12.50 was first up from a spell of seven months. The five year old gelding was having its first start for his new trainer Jeremy Gask. Leading South Australian rider, Travis Creek had the ride. Now that's a clue for you.
You only had to check any decent formguide to see that Pontevidra had five wins from 26 starts, was a first up winner and had won at the distance. At the odds Pontevidra had to be a far superior bet to non winner Helium.
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This edition of Punt to Win:
2011 Melbourne Cup Day
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