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4/2/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 28th. January, 2012.

Canterbury
: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Nocturnelle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $70,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Said Com
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Fontelina
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R4 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Al's Magic
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Trainer: David Payne

R5 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Steps In Time
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: John O'Shea

R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mangaroa Flyer
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Tigress Lily
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.80
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: John O'Shea


Sandown Lakside: Track Dead R1, Good R2 - R8.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Volando
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Jake Duffy
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Go Katrina
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Greg Eurell


Doomben: Track Heavy.

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Royal Reign
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Patrick Keane
Trainer: William Pholi
Winner: Za Magic
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Eddie Wilkinson
Trainer: Brian Smith

R8 $45,000 Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Mondean
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning strike rates, fitness and lightly raced horses free horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The 70% Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/1/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/1/2012 & 14/1/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 14/1/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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