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4/2/2012
edition
Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about
favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring
favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and
Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.
Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here is the result for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 21st. January, 2012.
Flemington: Track Dead R1 - R3, Good R4 - R8.
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Henia
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Shamexpress
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Here are the results for horse racing punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 14th. January, 2012.
On this day the $1,600,000 Magic Millions 2YO Classic and the $820,000 Magic Millions 3YO Guineas were held at Gold Coast.
The Gai Waterhouse trained $3.40 favourite, 2YO filly Driefontein, ridden by Tommy Berry, won the $1,600,000 Magic Millions 2YO Classic on protest from another Gai Waterhouse trained 2YO filly, No Looking Back. No Looking Back, which started at $9.00, was ridden by Nash Rawiller.
3YO filly Punch On, which started at $9.00, won the $820,000 Magic Millions 3YO Guineas by a nose from 3YO gelding Easy Running, which started at $7.00. Punch On was ridden by Paul Hammersley and trained by Peter Balzen. Easy Running was trained by Desleigh Forster and ridden by Damian Browne. The $4.40 favourite, 3YO gelding Safusa, finished a well beaten eleventh in the field of 16 horses. Safusa was trained by David Pfieffer and ridden by Jay Ford.
Rosehill: Track Good.
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: De Shamekh
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R3 $70,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Chivvy
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
R4 $70,000 3YO. Rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: The Owl
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Upbeat
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
R5 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Alma's Fury
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Paul Murray
Equal Favourite: New Day Rising
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Flemington: Track Good.
R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: If I Could
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Formidable
Starting price: $18.00
Top fluctuation: $18.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.10
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra
R3 $70,000 3YO & 4YO. Rating 78. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Johannapine
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Mark Webb
Winner: Ravenous Lass
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.60
Jockey: Katelyn Mallyon
Trainer: Dale Sutton
This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning strike rates, fitness and lightly raced horses free horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The 70% Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/1/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/1/2012 & 14/1/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 14/1/2012
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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