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4/2/2012 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 59kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Canterbury - 28/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Fontelina
59kg.
3
1200
$9.00
1/6
Girls Go Racing
59kg.
2
1100
$5.50
3/7
News Alert
59kg.
2
1250
$7.00
7/7
My Vegas
59kg.
3
1250
$10.00
6/10
Sandown Lakside - 28/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Song Of The Bell
59kg.
7
1300
$7.00
6/11
Instalment
59.5kg.
1
1400
$3.80fav.
10/14
Morphettville - 28/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Balzoni
61kg.
1
1050
$9.50
9/9
Grand Ginger
59kg.
6
1200
$7.00
2/12
Rosehill - 21/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rosie's Reward
60kg.
7
1200
$3.90fav.
4/9
Recorrido
59kg.
6
1200
$10.00
8/9
Irish Jig
59kg.
6
1500
$4.80
6/7
Hoylonny
59kg.
8
1350
$4.40
7/10
Rolling Pin
60kg.
12
1800
$4.60
2/12
Eagle Farm - 21/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Kilwinning Option
59kg.
10
1200
$5.00
2/12
Morphettville - 21/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Snip 'N' Run
59kg.
1
1400
$5.00
10/11
Rosehill - 14/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Permit
59kg.
3
2400
$4.20
1/8
New Day Rising
59kg.
1
1500
$3.20e.fav.
3/6
Parthian
59kg.
6
1500
$4.00
2/6
Flemington - 14/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sound System
60kg.
3
1000
$8.00
5/7
Shadowfax
59kg.
6
1400
$10.00
9/10
Gold Coast- 14/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Catapulted
60kg.
2
1400
$3.40fav.
12/13
Kontiki Park
59kg.
8
1800
$3.90
1/14
Morphettville - 14/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Fitoussi
59kg.
5
2600
$2.50fav.
4/7
Big Slick
59kg.
5
1600
$4.40
6/9
Warwick Farm - 7/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tiger Tees
59kg.
4
1300
$1.65fav.
2/7
Caulfield - 7/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
First Command
59kg.
1
1200
$3.60fav.
3/7
Wealthy Lad
59kg.
1
1400
$10.00
1/13
Gold Coast - 7/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mr Favulous
59kg.
4
1200
$7.00
7/13
Seek And Find
59kg.
10
900
$5.50
2/12
Trusted Partner
59kg.
4
900
$5.00e.fav.
9/12
Morphettville - 7/1/2012
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Petman
59kg.
4
1200
$2.25fav.
1/7
Blue Maggich
60kg.
1
1600
$7.00
9/9
Moonee Valley - 31/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Westsouthwest
59kg.
3
2040
$3.00fav.
2/7
Soaked
59kg.
2
2040
$5.00
5/7
Tykook
59kg.
5
1200
$7.50
5/10
Costa In The Glen
59kg.
3
1200
$7.00
6/11
Obsidian Dragon
59.5kg.
5
1000
$5.00
1/11
Canterbury - 24/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
We Betcha
60.5kg.
2
1200
$10.00
6/6
Sandown Hillside - 24/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Oforawesome
59kg.
2
1300
$9.00
9/14
Morphettville - 24/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Loukoumi
59kg.
6
2250
$3.00fav.
6/8
Warwick Farm - 17/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Scouting Wide
61.5kg.
2
2200
$8.00
2/9
Catapulted
59kg.
8
1200
$3.50
5/8
Flemington - 17/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Light Vision
59kg.
8
2540
$9.00
7/8
Morphettville - 17/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Justify That
60kg.
2
1250
$9.00
6/12
Morphettville - 10/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Instructor
59kg.
7
2019
$3.70
5/7
Caulfield - 3/12/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mabsam
59kg.
6
1400
$6.50
6/11
Catapulted
60kg.
4
1100
$5.00e.fav.
2/15
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning strike rates, fitness and lightly raced horses free horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The 70% Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/1/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/1/2012 & 14/1/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 14/1/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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