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7/4/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 31st. March.

Rosehill - Golden Slipper Day
Track: Good

R4 $400,000 3YO and upward. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Apache Cat
Result: third
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Greg Eurell
Winner: Haradasun
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R6 $400,000 3YO Fillies. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite:Miss Finland
Result: first

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

Moonee Valley: Track Good

R4 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Surfside Christmas
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Juste Momente
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sydney autumn horse racing betting carnival wagering tips
Get those betting odds
The Distance Specialist horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/3/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/3/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Golden Slipper Day - 31/3/2007
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill Guineas Day - 24/3/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/3/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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