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7/4/2007 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 24/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Falaise
59kg.
2
1200
$2.40fav.
3/6
Caulfield - 24/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zipping
60.5kg.
2
1700
$2.15fav.
2/8
Cheltenham - 24/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Navy Shaker
59.5kg.
4
1310
$5.00
10/13
Rosehill - 17/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Malcolm
59kg.
4
1300
$2.00fav.
1/6
Newton's Rings
59kg.
3
1300
$6.50
4/6
Grand Zulu
59.5kg.
3
1900
$9.00
2/10
Eagle Farm - 17/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Algorithm
59.5kg.
1
1000
$3.70fav.
1/11
Randwick - 10/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Court Command
61kg.
5
1100
$7.50
5/9
Storm Alert
59kg.
7
1200
$4.40
3/9
Caulfield - 10/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zipping
62kg.
2
1400
$4.20eq.fav.
4/12
Warwick Farm - 3/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mystery City
59kg.
6
1400
$6.50
2/6
Lantwin
59.5kg.
5
1400
$4.60
2/6
Malcolm
59kg.
1
1200
$7.00
7/12
Caulfield - 3/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Flame Of Sydney
59kg.
3
1400
$6.50
5/12
Doomben - 3/3/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mitanni
59kg.
12
1200
$4.00fav.
2/13
Rosehill - 24/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Typhoon Zed
59kg.
4
1100
$7.50
5/9
Flaming
59kg.
2
1300
$2.35fav.
2/10
Rosehill - 17/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Media
59.5kg.
2
1200
$6.50
5/9
Eagle Farm - 17/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mitanni
60kg.
8
1200
$3.10fav.
2/10
Caulfield - 10/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Haradasun
59kg.
4
1400
$1.35fav.
1/7
Apache Cat
61kg.
10
1100
$5.50
1/11
King Of Ashford
60kg.
2
1400
$8.00
1/12
Morphettville - 10/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Absolute Heaven
59.5kg.
6
1200
$8.00
3/10
Rosehill - 3/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Spirit Of Tara
59.5kg.
3
1900
$5.50
2/8
Doomben - 3/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Carry On Kosa
59kg.
2
1110
$3.20fav.
4/11
Morphettville - 3/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Quick Reaction
60kg.
6
1100
$8.00
7/13
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sydney autumn horse racing betting carnival wagering tips
Get those betting odds
The Distance Specialist horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/3/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/3/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Golden Slipper Day - 31/3/2007
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill Guineas Day - 24/3/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/3/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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