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7/4/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 24th. March.

Rosehill - Rosehill Guineas Day
Track: Good

R1 $65,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Falaise
Result: third
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Sunset Run
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $24.80
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R2 $100,000 3YO and upward. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Prince Arthur
Result: third
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: The Chieftain
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $24.40
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Guy Walter


Cheltenham: Track Good

R3 $50,000 2YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1310 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Class Apart
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Extension Of Time
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: David Hayes

R5 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2270 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Youths Edge
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Almost Never
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sydney autumn horse racing betting carnival wagering tips
Get those betting odds
The Distance Specialist horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/3/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/3/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Golden Slipper Day - 31/3/2007
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill Guineas Day - 24/3/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/3/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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