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8/2/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 1st. February, 2014.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Rating 74. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Woodbine
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $85,000 3YO & UP. Fillies and Mares. Rating 77. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Seaside
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Caulfield: Track Good.

R3 $100,000 Summer Championship. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Flying Hostess
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Darren Weir
Equal First: Eraset
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Equal First:
Morant
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer:Damien Williams


Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sarisara
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Rex Lipp

R2 $45,000 Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1020 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Agitate
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Kelly Schweida

R4 $45,000 Class 6. Set weights. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: The White Hope
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Matthew Dunn
Winner: Noogoora Burr
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.10
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: David J. Lawlor

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting information and betting tips
The Free Fitness and Consistency horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/2/2014

Betting favourites in small fields: 25/1/2014
Betting favourites in small fields: 18/1/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 18/1/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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