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18/12/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 4th. December, 2010.

Rosehill: Track Slow.

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Upon This Rock
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Winning Glory
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: David Payne

R3 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Flying Success
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Caulfield: Track Dead.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Pimento
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Jessica Rose
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $40,000 2YO. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 4
Equal Favourite: Flor Do Mar
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: David Hayes
Equal Favourite: Bay's Edge
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R3 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Ransom Willy
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Holly McKechnie
Trainer: Terry Kelly
Equal Favourite: Chief Of Staff
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $4.00
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Mark Minervini
Winner: Rockwood
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.40
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R4 $32,000 Mares. Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Orbiting Belle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Mick Price

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track Specialists horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/11/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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