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18/12/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 27th. November, 2010.

Randwick Kensington: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tunahog
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Ben Looker
Trainer: Lawrie Mayfield-Smith
Winner: Mumslad
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Allan Denham


Sandown Hillside: Track Heavy.

R2 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Overtake
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Luke Oliver
Winner: Riveted
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Ciaron Maher

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Robdon Flyer
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent
Winner: Irel
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sheedy
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Jungle Ruler
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Luke Oliver

R7 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: King Cobweb
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: John Rattle
Winner: Syndrome
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Lisa Cropp
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R8 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Serenada
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Maquina
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Lisa Cropp
Trainer: Robbie Laing


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R2 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Spechenka
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Ben Ahrens


Morphettville: Track Dead.

R2 $32,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Equal Favourite: Lilgiggleo
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Amy Herrmann
Trainer: Paula Trenwith
Equal Favourite: Little Akie
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Brian Mueller
Winner: Miss Debra
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Jordan Frew
Trainer: Paul Seater

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track Specialists horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/11/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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