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18/12/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 20th. November, 2010.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Saramenha
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.30
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Anise
Starting price: $16.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.70
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Foxwedge
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John O'Shea

R3 $70,000 3YO. Rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Pimpala Secret
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Marc Conners
Winner: Scarf
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Moonee Valley: Track Good.

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 3000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Persian Star
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Doosra Diamond
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.00
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Bob Challis


Morphettville: Track Good.

R1 $40,000 Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Rock The Moment
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.55
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $32,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Conduction
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Mick Huxtable
Winner: Jeter
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: John P. Thompson

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track Specialists horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/12/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/11/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/11/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/11/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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