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12/5/2007 edition

Win Betting Tote Firmers

How often do punters hear, "There's been a big go for this horse." They then rush to back it on the tote.

A prime example was at Morphettville some time ago where 4YO mare Kyshnaha was first up in a restricted race run over 1200 metres. The mare had won her only other race, a Gawler maiden, five months earlier by over three lengths.

On track Kyshnaha was solidly backed and firmed from $11.00 to start at $6.50. Tote punters, no doubt well informed about the money coming in on track for Kyshnaha, saw the tote price flashing in front of them, indicating a tote firmer and joined the party.

Kyshnaha won the 15 horse race. No doubt they were pleased.

But: The best tote odds were $4.20, while SuperTab paid a paltry $3.80.

This is a prime example of why win betting tote "firmers" should not be done. You cannot take $3.80 about a horse which starts at $6.50 after being $11.00.

Getting such big unders on your winners is a guaranteed way to lose money over the long term, because noone gives you refunds on your losing bets. That means you have to squeeze out the maximum odds you can get when you back a winner, not get $3.80 when $11.00 was available.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Win betting tote firmers
Worst horse racing bet of the year?
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/5/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/5/2007
Punt to Win index


2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


 

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